Introduction. The purpose of the research is to evaluate the capabilities of the structural theory of vibration protection systems as applied to mathematical modeling the spring suspension of a vehicle. This is an urgent problem since there is obvious lack in theoretical knowledge in this area.

Materials and methods. Within the framework of the structural theory, the analogy method has been used to compare the calculation schemes of technical objects in the form of mechanical oscillatory systems and automatic control systems. In this case, automatic control systems are equivalent in dynamic terms to the original calculation schemes. This approach allows to use automatic control theory methods in the analysis of technical objects.

Results. An analysis of scientific literature in the field of vehicle suspension design theory has been carried out. The possibility of using the methodology of structural mathematical modeling in the development of approaches to rational vehicle suspension design has been assessed. An approach to selecting vehicle suspension parameters has been proposed. In a linear formulation, a mathematical model of the system has been constructed in the form of operator equations of motion, elastic and damping elements being taken into account. Based on the equations of motion, transfer functions of the system in two coordinates have been obtained.

Discussions and Conclusion. Analytical relationships are given taking into account the linkage coefficient of technical objects motion coordinates. The transfer functions of the relationship between vehicle elements motion coordinates were obtained taking into account the effect of damping elements and conditional random signals of road surface irregularities.

The analysis suggests that the solution to the problem of mathematical modeling a rational vehicle suspension can be implemented through using methods of the structural theory of vibration protection systems even in a linear formulation. The results obtained have made it possible to improve the dynamic characteristics of the car suspension as an automatic control system in the first approximation. Further research will be aimed at evaluating the capabilities of active and semi-active vibration protection systems.

Introduction. An internal combustion engine is a complex unit, the performance of which is closely related to the functionality of various control systems, in particular electronic ones. Failures in electronic control systems cause disruption of the normal engine operation, rendering it into a limited function mode. Acoustic noises emitted by the engine during various operating conditions can be used as a parameter for engine diagnostics and malfunction identification. The article presents the results of theoretical and experimental studies comparing acoustic diagnostic methods for electronic control systems of gasoline and diesel internal combustion engines.

Materials and methods. Improving the powertrains of modern transport and technological vehicles has been and remains an urgent task. One of the vectors to achieve this goal is the use of automated control and monitoring systems for internal combustion engine operation based on the application of electronic and microprocessor technologies. Thanks to the use of such systems, the efficiency of the internal combustion engine is increased significantly. However, the complexity and design features of these systems increase the possibility of potential engine malfunctions connected with their failures. As a result, there is a need to develop and implement various diagnostic methods. The proposed assessment of the functionality of such electronic systems based on acoustic signals emitted by the engine is one of the ways of operational technical control. The recording of noise characteristics is carried out by a portable sound recorder, which is further processed and analyzed with the use of specialized software. The simplicity and application speed of the method are the advantage in comparison with other traditional diagnostic methods, especially in the field conditions, directly in the places where vehicles are used. The authors of the article previously conducted the experimental assessment of the application possibility of acoustic diagnostics to the functionality of gasoline engine electronic systems. This article presents the results of the same method use on diesel engine and provides a comparative evaluation of the results. The object of the study is a diesel engine, which is part of the GNFA training stand. The stand is designed to study electronic control systems for diesel engines. The capabilities of the stand make it possible to set various malfunctions of electronic systems by opening the electrical circuit in the fuse box, thereby causing a complete engine failure or switching its operation to a limited mode. The authors of the article measured and analyzed the acoustic parameters of the engine in various modes of limited operation and compared them with the noise parameters of the internal combustion engine in normal operation.

Results. Various kinds of malfunctions of electronic control systems of the diesel internal combustion engine have been analyzed. Three engine operating states have been identified: normal operation mode of the engine; inoperative (engine does not start); limited operation mode of the engine.

The analysis and comparison of acoustic parameters of the diesel engine operation under these conditions were carried out, with the subsequent substantiation of the rules for identifying electronic system malfunctions by spectral decomposition of the noise background. A comparative assessment was made based on the results of studies on gasoline and diesel engines.

Discussion and conclusion. The results of the study can become the scientific basis for the method of fast technical monitoring of the internal combustion engine operational condition of modern transport and technological vehicles by acoustic assessment of the performance of electronic control systems.

Introduction. In the context of rapid urbanization and increasing environmental requirements for urban transport, the transition to environmentally friendly types of rolling stock is becoming particularly relevant. Moscow, as a megacity with a high population density and intensive traffic flow, faces the need to reduce pollutant emissions and improve the quality of the urban environment. The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the feasibility of replacing buses with internal combustion engines (ICE) with electric buses as the main type of surface urban public transport (UPT).

Materials and Methods. The study is based on a multicomponent methodology combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. The informational basis consists of official data from the State Unitary Enterprise “Mosgortrans,” including operational statistics and information on the maintenance of rolling stock. Data collection included a survey of two target groups (UPT passengers and drivers). A comparative technical and operational analysis of key performance parameters of ICE buses and electric buses was carried out (energy consumption/fuel consumption, maintenance costs, CO₂ emissions).

Results. The study provides evidence of the economic and environmental feasibility of using electric buses in the Moscow metropolitan area. A positive social effect was identified, manifested in increased passenger comfort. Significant investments required for the construction of modern charging infrastructure and for maintaining the necessary fleet of vehicles were noted.

Discussion. Despite existing limitations, the analysis confirmed the prospects of electric buses as a core element of Moscow’s urban public transport. The main recommendations relate to the gradual introduction of electric buses, with an emphasis on the development of charging station networks and the creation of incentive mechanisms for manufacturers and transport service operators.

Conclusion. The findings are of interest to the Moscow city administration, transport companies, and public organizations concerned with ensuring a comfortable and safe urban environment. The novelty of the study lies in its in-depth examination of how technologies influence the lives of a large number of people and in the interaction between engineering solutions and social perception.

Introduction. Traffic accidents are a leading cause of death. In 2024, 19,940 people were killed in accidents in the EU, while in Russia this number amounts to 14,400 people. A significant proportion of accidents are associated with dangerous maneuvers: abrupt lane changes, overtaking, emergency braking, and running red lights. Traditional monitoring methods are limited by cost and scalability. The goal of this research is to develop a system for automatic detection and classification of dangerous maneuvers based on video data obtained with YOLOv8 and Deep SORT.

Materials and Methods. A system consisting of four modules is proposed: a modified YOLOv8n (with a P2 layer, LW_C2f, Wise-IoU) for vehicle detection; an optimized Deep SORT for tracking; trajectory analysis with camera calibration; maneuver classification based on acceleration thresholds (0.35g for lane change, 0.30g for braking), lane marking crossing, and traffic light status (YOLOv8). The system was trained on 45,000 vehicle images and on 20,000 images for re-ID.

Results. Testing of 150 hours of video (various conditions) has shown the following results: mAP vehicle detection – 92.7%, MOTA tracking – 86.3%, maneuver classification accuracy – 89.3% (F1: lane change – 89.4%, braking – 89.7%, red light – 85.2%) at 28 FPS on RTX 3070. Latency – 0.12 s.

Discussion and conclusions. The system under investigation is superior to similar systems in speed and maneuver coverage, and is suitable for ITS applications. Limitations refer to decreased accuracy in foggy or rainy weather. Further research can lead to expanding the class range, edge computing, and risk prediction. The system implementation will reduce accidents and results in automated traffic enforcement.

Introduction. A review of approaches to improve road safety, as well as the methods and models used for this purpose, has been conducted. It has been revealed that children safety on roads remains a pressing issue for the global community. It has been noted that, despite a significant decrease in the number of traffic accidents on Irkutsk roads, their quantity is still high, and further research on the dynamics of all indicators and influencing factors is necessary to identify their changing trends.

The purpose of the study. To model tendencies in the number of road accidents and injured traffic participants with the use of regression analysis, to study changes in road accident rates and influencing factors on Irkutsk region roads for the period from 2019 to 2024.

Materials and methods. To predict the number of traffic accidents and injured people (sum of hurt and fatal) on Irkutsk roads from 2019 to 2024, traffic police statistics were processed in the Statgraphics. The type of regression model was selected based on the highest value of the determination coefficient. The dynamics of traffic accident rates and road injuries were illustrated in MS Excel. The following methods were used: system analysis, computer modeling based on regression analysis, and statistical analysis of the factors that cause traffic accidents. Results. The analysis of road accidents in the Irkutsk region for the period from 2019 to 2024 has been performed. Regression models of the number of road accidents and injured people have been obtained with high determination coefficients of 99.4 - 99.6%, which allow them to be used for forecasting.

Conclusion. The study has demonstrated a steady decrease in the number of road accidents and the number of people injured in them, and statistically significant regression models for their dynamics have been obtained. It was shown that in 2024, 88.7% of road accidents were caused by drivers violating traffic rules. In 70.32% of cases, drivers of passenger cars violated the rules (14.5% of which were drunk). 41% of traffic offenders were between 30 and 50 years old. In 14.5% of cases, traffic violations were committed by drivers with over 30 years of driving experience.

Introduction. The article discusses the problem of improving the efficiency and safety of urban transport systems through the introduction of dynamic speed control. The relevance of the study is due to the need to adapt traffic parameters in real time to changing road and weather conditions. The work analyzes the evolution from classical traffic control systems to advanced systems integrated into intelligent transport systems (ITS). Particular attention is paid to dynamic speed control methods using variable information display (VMI) and the prospects for the introduction of infrastructure-vehicle (V2I) communication technologies.

Materials and methods. The main research method is simulation modeling in Aimsun using the example of the Kazan street and road network. 12 strategies for zonal speed control (from 20 to 80 km/h) were developed and their comparative analysis was carried out by means of meso- and micromodeling methods for the morning peak period.

Results. It has been shown that differentiated control has an effective impact on the flow parameters. The best results were demonstrated by the C3 Strategy (limits of 80, 60, 60 km/h by zone), ensuring the minimum total time spent (769,253 seconds), maximum average speed (35.33 km/h) and throughput (35,566.5 T/h). Strategies with uniformly low constraints resulted in deteriorated indicators.

Discussion and conclusion. The conducted research confirms the high efficiency of dynamic zonal speed control for optimizing traffic flows in urban conditions. It has been established that differentiated regulation (rather than a single strict restriction) makes it possible to find a balance between bandwidth, speed of movement and the level of network load. The best results have been shown by the C3 Strategy, which assumes relatively high speed limits on main routes. Further research will provide increased control efficiency associated with the integration of V2I technologies to allow for individual and continuous speed control for each vehicle, which will lead to further harmonization of traffic flow and increased safety.

Introduction. Despite the general decrease in recent years, the accident rate in the Russian Federation remains at a sufficiently high level. Mortality as a result of road traffic accidents in our country is also at a fairly high level. Meanwhile, the occurrence of a Road Traffic Accident (RTA), as a phenomenon, depends on the presence of factor or on the combination of factors that exceed their normal state, thereby initiating a dangerous chain of events leading to an accident. In this regard, assessing the influence of various factors on the accident rate, their identification, and prevention is a relevant scientific task.

Materials and methods. This article outlines the main principles for the development of an Intelligent Informational System based on the integrated consideration of significance of an interconnected array of criteria and sub-criteria, obtained by normalized expert and experimental evaluation of the main final importance of subsystem elements that constitute the common system at various levels of forming a comprehensive assessment of road safety on a separate section of the street network. The object of assessment is a traffic accident as a phenomenon on a street network section, originated from a set of predictors (final elements) of the assessment, which at different evaluation levels make sub-criteria, criteria, and subsystems of the general assessment system, one or more of which has a deviation from the normal state, which leads to an emergency situation and the occurrence of a traffic accident as a phenomenon.

Conclusions. Multicriteria method for assessing road safety on a road network section using final predictors for evaluating individual subsystems within the Driver-Vehicle-Road-Environment (DVRE) system has been developed. The ranking and interinfluence of these predictors are implemented in the form of a software product that includes computational methods based on fuzzy inference rules. The assessment of the system state predictors is carried out exclusively by expert and experimental methods at locations of concentrated road traffic accidents on the street network section. The specified method is universal, employs several levels for evaluating various influencing factors, and can be supplemented with additional estimating predictors if necessary.

Research scope/Potential for further use of the scientific work results. The proposed method can serve as a basis for developing an analytical database on the state of the transport environment in our country in terms of its safety, as well as act as a foundation for the further transformation of the Driver-Vehicle-Road-Environment (DVRE) complex into more advanced systemic forms.

Practical significance. The research results can be used in a comprehensive assessment of road traffic safety to identify factors influencing the occurrence of dangerous situations, for conducting preventive measures to eliminate these factors as causes of accidents.

Originality. For the first time, a comprehensive approach has been applied to assess road traffic safety on the street network section. This approach uses the decomposition of the interacting subsystems of the Driver-Vehicle-Road-Environment (DVRE) system into evaluation predictors whose state is determined not by predictive or statistic methods, but by the expert and experimental research with the establishment of criteria that exceed the norm.

Introduction. In the context of Russia’s transport and logistics system transformation and the increasing importance of regional cargo flows, the development of reliable tools for long-term forecasting of cargo transportation volumes has become an urgent task. This article presents an econometric model for predicting the cargo volume transported by road in the Belgorod region for the period up to 2040.

Methods and Materials. Official statistical data for the period from 2010 to 2023, including the volume of transportation, gross regional product, the length of highways, and the number of trucks, have been used as materials. The study is based on multiple linear regression with subsequent diagnostic testing for multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and autocorrelation of the residuals.

Results. The constructed model explains 87% of the variance in traffic volume (R² = 0.87), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 4.2%. All coefficients are statistically significant (p < 0.05), that confirms its reliability for scenario forecasting in the context of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Conclusion. The results of the work can be used by the executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the development of transport strategies, investment programs, and logistics clusters, and can also be integrated into the digital ecosystem of the National Digital Transport and Logistics Platform (NDTLP) and the Transport and Economic Balance (TEB).

Introduction. The relevance of forecasting the passenger flow of public bus transport in the conditions of the steady decline in the volume of traffic, the aging of rolling stock and the transformation of population transport priorities has been substantiated. The need to develop a transparent, interpretable and statistically valid model, considering both demographic and infrastructure factors, has been shown.

The purpose of the study is to develop an interpretable and statistically substantiated regression model of medium-term prediction of the passenger flow of public bus transport, taking into account demographic and infrastructure determinants, with the adaptation possibility to the conditions of different regions.

Methods and materials. The study uses official statistical data of the Voronezh Region for the period from 2010 to 2024, including the number of transported passengers, the population and the availability of buses in operation. Multiple linear regression based on a time trend is used as a forecasting method.

Methodology. A regression model of the dependence of passenger flow on demographic and infrastructural factors has been built; the parameters have been evaluated using the least squares method; the quality of the model has been checked by the coefficient of determination, the statistical significance of the coefficients and the analysis of residuals.

Results. The model has demonstrated a high explanatory power (R² = 0.94); the forecast for the period from 2025 to 2031 indicates a steady decrease in passenger traffic – from 254.7 thousand to 177.5 thousand people, which is primarily due to the demographic decline.

Discussion. The negative coefficient for the number of buses does not reflect a cause-and-effect relationship, but rather the system’s response to falling demand; the positive trend compensates nonlinear effects of recent years. The results coincide with national trends and emphasize the need to move from quantitative to qualitative transportation management.

Conclusion. The developed model is interpretable, practically applicable, and suitable for strategic planning. In the future, it is planned to expand the set of variables, switch to route-oriented forecasting and integrate the model into the system of scenario planning.

Introduction. This publication provides a comparative analysis of two-phase and three-phase theories of traffic flows. It considers the key differences between these theories and their applicability to real transport systems as well as the phase transitions taken into account by the theories’ models. The main focus is made on empirical data and modeling complex dynamic phenomena on roads. The article highlights the scientific novelty of Kerner’s threephase theory and its advantages in congestion forecasting and managing traffic flows.

Materials and methods. The study examines and analyses classical theories of traffic flow, including two-phase models based on the fundamental diagram and the three-phase theory of traffic developed by B. Kerner. Main attention is paid to theoretical aspects, comparative analysis, and interpretation of key provisions of these theories. Study is based on analysis of scientific literature. The main sources of information have been peer-reviewed articles published in leading scientific journals on transport, monographs devoted to the traffic flow theory and its application in traffic management, reports and materials of the international conferences, and other sources covering both classic approaches and current trends in traffic flow modeling.

Results. A comparative analysis of the general two-phase theory of traffic flow and Kerner’s three-phase traffic flow theory has been made. In two-phase model, based on the fundamental traffic diagram, the main phases are free flow and dense flows. These phases are characterized by the relationship between density, flow, and vehicle speed. In two-phase model the phase transition occurs when the critical vehicle density is exceeded. The threephase model describes several fundamental properties of phase transitions: from free flow to synchronized flow, from synchronized flow to wide clusters and reverse transitions and their variants.

Discussion and conclusion. The main results of the study include a detailed comparison between two theories, allowing us to identify critical aspects and potential directions for further development. Specifically, it has been shown that Kerner’s three-phase model offers greater capabilities for describing metastable states and complex transitions between phases, making it more suitable for analyzing traffic flows in modern megacities.

Introduction. It has been demonstrated that air voids are inherently structural defects in asphalt concrete. The article presents information on mathematical models that take into account the influence of air void content on both the elastic modulus of asphalt concrete and the service life of the pavement, expressed as the cumulative number of design loads that the pavement can withstand before failure. Therefore, considering air void content when determining the elastic modulus of asphalt concrete used in pavement design is a relevant and practically significant task.

Materials and methods. The analysis of methods for accounting the damage accumulation effect applied to the fatigue destruction resistance calculation of asphalt concrete and other materials has been performed. Relying on this analysis, it was concluded that the damage theory can be used to determine the elastic modulus of asphalt concrete. The analogy between Yu. N. Rabotnov’s damage parameter and air void content is emphasized. Furthermore, the possibility of applying the principle of deformational equivalence between a damaged and a homogeneous medium to the calculation of asphalt concrete elastic modulus is justified. The concept proposed by L.M. Kachanov, which involves an increase in stress magnitude with an increasing number of damages, was applied to the calculation of tensile stress in bending.

Results. The results of calculating the elastic moduli of bitumen-based asphalt concrete (grades BND) with varying air void content, but within the limits permitted by GOST R 58406.2-2020, have been presented. This let the authors to supplement the data on elastic modulus values for asphalt concretes in GOST R 71404-2024. The reason to add the data in GOST R 71404-2024 is explained by the fact that the temperature of the asphalt concrete mix in different parts of the dump truck body varies, which leads to different compaction conditions for the mix based on its temperature. In this case, tests of cores taken from sampling points located close to each other show almost identical bitumen contents, but different air void contents. Therefore, when designing flexible road surfaces, it is necessary to focus on the elastic moduli of asphalt concrete that correspond to the maximum limits for the content of air voids.

Conclusion. The obtained results allow to make more detailed pavement design calculations.

Introduction. In the conditions of the Siberian and Ural Federal Districts, the exploitation of oil and gas fields requires year-round transport communications. Of particular importance are winter roads and ice crossings, which are key elements of logistics. Their reliability directly depends on the bearing capacity of ice, which makes it important to search for ways to increase the latter. The purpose of the study is to experimentally determine the efficiency of using modifying materials to increase the strength of ice crossings.

Methods and materials. Ice samples made from water of various compositions were used for the analysis, as well as ice samples reinforced with various materials: wood chips (pykrete), polyvinyl alcohol solution (PVA 1788), Armdor K100 geosynthetic material and their combinations. The tests were carried out at a temperature of -15 °C with the use of the Gotech AI-7000 LA 10 laboratory complex. The bending strength and deformability were determined when simulating heavy vehicle loads.

Results. The experiments have shown that the ice strength depends on the water composition: the highest values were found in samples made of distilled water. Reinforcement with geosynthetic materials and the use of wood chips significantly increased the bearing capacity and deformability of ice. The use of polyvinyl alcohol turned out to be the most effective.

Conclusion. The obtained results confirm the feasibility of using combined ice reinforcement technologies, especially a combination of geogrids and modifiers. This ensures increased reliability of ice crossings and the possibility of their operation under higher loads. It is recommended to conduct experimental design tests in real conditions for further verification and implementation of the proposed designs.