Long-term forecasting model of the road cargo transportation volume in the region based on an econometric approach (on the example of the Belgorod region)
https://doi.org/10.26518/2071-7296-2025-22-6-966-975
EDN: PBPIUI
Abstract
Introduction. In the context of Russia’s transport and logistics system transformation and the increasing importance of regional cargo flows, the development of reliable tools for long-term forecasting of cargo transportation volumes has become an urgent task. This article presents an econometric model for predicting the cargo volume transported by road in the Belgorod region for the period up to 2040.
Methods and Materials. Official statistical data for the period from 2010 to 2023, including the volume of transportation, gross regional product, the length of highways, and the number of trucks, have been used as materials. The study is based on multiple linear regression with subsequent diagnostic testing for multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and autocorrelation of the residuals.
Results. The constructed model explains 87% of the variance in traffic volume (R² = 0.87), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 4.2%. All coefficients are statistically significant (p < 0.05), that confirms its reliability for scenario forecasting in the context of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Conclusion. The results of the work can be used by the executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the development of transport strategies, investment programs, and logistics clusters, and can also be integrated into the digital ecosystem of the National Digital Transport and Logistics Platform (NDTLP) and the Transport and Economic Balance (TEB).
About the Author
E. V. Miroshnikov
Orel State University named after I.S. Turgenev
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Miroshnikov Evgeniy V. – Candidate of Technical Sciences, Vice President of Public Joint-Stock Company “Rostelecom”, doctoral applicant, Machine Service and Repair Department
95, Komsomolskaya Street, Orel, 302026
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Review
For citations:
Miroshnikov E.V. Long-term forecasting model of the road cargo transportation volume in the region based on an econometric approach (on the example of the Belgorod region). The Russian Automobile and Highway Industry Journal. 2025;22(6):966-975. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26518/2071-7296-2025-22-6-966-975. EDN: PBPIUI
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