Assessment methodology of the organization level of urban passenger transportation with stability consideration

Introduction. The development of passenger motor transport systems in cities makes it necessary to solve the problem of their organization level assessment. There is a problem of an excessive variety of indicators used for such estimation. This complicates not only comparative analysis of the systems under consideration in different cities but also the development of advancement implications in a particular city. In this regard, the elaboration of the methodology for assessing the level of organization of regular urban passenger transportation, aimed at solving this problem, is relevant.

The purpose of the work is to develop theoretical and methodological tools for organization level assessment of urban passenger transport.

Materials and methods. The paper uses the provisions of general scientific research methods - analysis and synthesis, mathematical statistics, in terms of the analysis of collinearity, multicollinearity and orthogonality of indicators, the theory of transport processes and systems, control theory, methods of expert assessments. The results of field surveys and continuous observation surveys, data from open information systems (the official website of the administration of Orenburg city and Rosstat), “StatSoft Statistics” and “MS Excel” software were used.

Results. From the existing diversity, the use of seven indicators has been justified and their impact on the assessment of the organization level of passenger motor transport systems has been established. The mathematical model developed for this purpose is supplemented with an indicator of system stability under conditions of non-force majeure disturbance. The greatest role in estimating the level of organization plays “The average value of the deviation of bus traffic intervals from the calculated intervals during 24 hours” and “The share of the territory covered by the city route network” indicators.

Conclusion. Theoretical and methodological tools for assessing the organization level of the operation of urban passenger transport systems have been developed, the effectiveness of which has been confirmed by the example of Orenburg city. The organization level was 0.41, with the stability level of 0.302, compared to the acceptable value of 0.876.

Areas of further research focuses on the development of a set of methods for the enhancement of urban passenger transportation systems.

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