Predicting the number of road accidents involving personal mobility aids on the example of Krasnodar krai
https://doi.org/10.26518/2071-7296-2024-21-4-594-604
EDN: QBAZRW
Abstract
Introduction. Nowadays personal mobility aids (SIMs) are in active demand. According to the data of the mass media, the considered means of mobility are particularly popular in southern cities, such as the cities of Krasnoyarsk region, in which 190 accidents involving SIMs occurred during the period of 2018–2023. In order to assess the changing situation in the field of accidents involving SIMs in the scale of southern cities, a model for predicting the number of accidents involving the considered means of transportation within the framework of this study using the example of Krasnodar Krai was developed.
Methods and Materials. In order to predict the number of traffic accidents, mathematical modelling methods have been used as a research method, in particular the science of econometrics has been applied, which is quite often used to evaluate statistical indicators from a mathematical point of view.
Results. The authors have developed a model for predicting the number of accidents involving SIM for Krasnodar region with a reliability of 67%.
Conclusion. It was found that the increasing nature of change in the considered quantities can be described using a multiplicative model consisting of three components – seasonal, trend and random. The calculation of all components enables to determine the type of model (), which can calculate the number of accidents involving SIM for the subject (Krasnodar Krai) under consideration.
Keywords
personal mobility aids,
road accidents,
time series,
econometrics,
multiplicative model,
forecasting
Supporting agencies: The work was carried out within the framework of the federal programme of Priority 2030 university support with the use of equipment on the basis of the High Technology Centre of V.G. Shukhov Belarusian State Technical University.
About the Authors
A. G. Shevtsova
V.G. Shukhova Belgorod State Technological University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Anastasia G. Shevtsova – Dr. of Sci., Professor of the Transport Traffic Operation and Organization Department
308012, Belgorod, 46, Kostiukova Street
S. E. Savotchenko
Sergo Ordzhonikidze Russian State Geological Prospecting Universities
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey E. Savotchenko – Dr. of Sci., Associate Professor, Professor of the Mathematics Department
117485, Moscow, GSP-7, 23, Miklukho-Maklaya Street
A. A. Iung
V.G. Shukhova Belgorod State Technological University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Anastasia A. Iung – Postgraduate student, Transport Traffic Operation and Organization Department
308012, Belgorod, 46, Kostiukova Street
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Review
For citations:
Shevtsova A.G., Savotchenko S.E., Iung A.A. Predicting the number of road accidents involving personal mobility aids on the example of Krasnodar krai. The Russian Automobile and Highway Industry Journal. 2024;21(4):594-604. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26518/2071-7296-2024-21-4-594-604. EDN: QBAZRW
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