Forecasting technique of transport need for population of cities with high tourist potential during peak seasons

Introduction. One of the key problems in ensuring the quality of recreation for the population is the provision of transport services that meet the transport needs of vacationers. The study of the transport needs of the population of resort cities during the holiday season is caused by the need to assess changing passenger flows as a result of a multiple increase due to vacationers in accordance with their place of attraction and possible adjustments to the routes of regular passenger transportation by road. This determines the relevance of the topic of this article. The purpose of the article is to develop a methodology for determining the needs for transport services for the population and vacationers in cities with high resort potential during the busiest periods, which makes it possible to design transportation processes along regular routes.

Materials and methods. General scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, the provisions of probability theory and mathematical statistics, mathematical modeling, as well as the provisions of the technology of transport processes were used as the main research methods. The work carried out the zoning of the city into transport areas with a center of gravity at stopping points of urban passenger transport. Calculations of potential transport needs were carried out on the basis of a survey of vacationers and field observations, which were processed using standard Microsoft Excel and Statistika software.

Results. The main result of the work is a methodology for determining the potential transport needs of the population and vacationers in cities with high tourism potential for the development and adjustment of routes for regular passenger transportation by road during the holiday season, which represents the scientific novelty of the research. The technique contains a mathematical model and algorithm.

Discussion and conclusion. The use of this methodology will enable the organizer of transportation in resort cities to optimize the organization of regular passenger transportation by road during peak seasons.

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