Mathematical analysis of certain road safety indicators in the Russian Federation
https://doi.org/10.26518/2071-7296-2021-18-6-700-711
Abstract
Introduction. A large number of fatalities on the roads of the Russian Federation is a significant state problem; to reduce this indicator, various target programs are being developed at the national level. To assess the achievement of the established target programs, it is necessary to perform a mathematical analysis of certain road safety indicators, which makes it possible to establish the most accurate mathematical model describing certain interrelationships of the indicators under consideration for the subsequent forecast and assessment of the achievement of the established target indicators, which will allow assessing the effectiveness certain guidelines of state policy in the area under consideration.
Methods and materials. In the research work, methods of statistical and mathematical analysis, models for determining the state of road safety at different levels - world, state and regional, depending on various parameters are used.
Results. A mathematical model for assessing road safety indicators based on the analysis of transport and social risk parameters is proposed, their low relationship is determined and the possibility of using them as independent parameters for assessing the state of road safety at the national level is established.
Conclusion. The absence of a close relationship between the indicator of social risk and motorization, measured in the number of cars per 1000 inhabitants (the value of the correlation coefficient is 0,422), was found, which allows one to judge the presence of other factors influencing the parameter under consideration.
About the Author
A. G. Shevtsova
V. G. Shukhova Belgorod State Technological University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Anastasia G. Shevtsova – Cand. of Sci., Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Traffic Operation and Organization Department
References
1. Shevtsova A.G. Dinamika realizacii programmy Vision Zero v mirovyh stranah [Dynamics of the Vision Zero Program Implementation in World Countries] // World of Transport and Technological Machines. 2021.3 (74): 35-42. (in Russian)
2. Zeynalov F.N. O primenimosti shvedskoj programmy povyshenija bezopasnosti dorozhnogo dvizhenija Vision Zero k rossijskoj dejstvitel’nosti [On the applicability of the Swedish program for improving road safety “Vision Zero” to the Russian reality] // Scientific Bulletin of the Oryol Legal Institute of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia named after V.V. Lukyanov. 2020. 1 (82): 92-98. (in Russian)
3. Novikov I.A., Kravchenko A.A., Shevtsova A.G., Vasilyeva V.V. Nauchno-metodologicheskij podhod k snizheniju avarijnosti na dorogah Rossijskoj Federacii [Scientific and methodological approach to reducing accidents on the roads of the Russian Federation] // World of Transport and Technological Machines. 2019. 3 (66): 58-64. (in Russian)
4. Captains VT, Chubukov AB, Silyanov VV, MoninaO.Yu. O faktorah, opredeljajushhih dorozhno-transportnuju avarijnost’ v regionah Rossii [On the factors determining road traffic accidents in the regions of Russia] // Science and technology in the road industry. 2019. 4 (90): 18-23. (in Russian)
5. Starovoit R.V. Bezopasnye i kachestvennye avtomobil’nye dorogi – glavnyj proekt federal’nogo dorozhnogo agentstva [Safe and high-quality highways - the main project of the federal road agency] // Transport strategy - XXI century. 2016. 34: 28-29.
6. Averin A.N., Lyakhov V.P., KerimovO.Yu., Razumets V.M. Reshenie problemy bezopasnyh i kachestvennyh avtomobil’nyh dorog v nacional’nom proekte [Solving the problem of safe and high-quality highways in the national project] // Science and Education: Economy and Economy; entrepreneurship; law and governance. 2019. 5 (108): 115-118.
7. BlinkinM.Ya.,Reshetova E.M. Institucional’nye novacii i matematicheskie modeli Rubena Smida v svete sovremennyh rossijskih transportnyh realij [Institutional innovations and mathematical models of Ruben Smid in the light of modern Russian transport realities] // Urban studies and practices. 2019. 4. 1 (14): 43-63.
8. Sokolov M. Transportnaja strategija Rossii na period do 2030 goda [Transport strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030] // Transport strategy - XXI century. 2013. 22: 7-9. (in Russian)
9. Sergeev V.I., Fedorenko A.I., Gerami V.D. Rol’ logistiki v razvitii transportnogo kompleksa RF: v razreze korrektirovki transportnoj strategii RF na period do 2030 goda [The role of logistics in the development of the transport complex of the Russian Federation: in the context of adjusting the transport strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 // Logistics and supply chain management. 2012. 6 (53): 7-25. (in Russian)
10. Kovalenko N.V., Beznovskaya V.V., Skorokhodova A.V. Sovremennye tendencii razvitija transportnogo kompleksa Rossijskoj Federaci [Modern trends in the development of the transport complex of the Russian Federation // International technical-economic journal. 2017. 3: 25-31. (in Russian)
11. Shavrak E.I. Analiz nekotoryh aspektov transportnyh riskov [ Analysis of some aspects of transport risks]// Life safety. 2009. 1 (97): 17-22. (in Russian)
12. Shavrak E.I. Avtomobil’nye riski: korreljacionnyj analiz [Automotive risks: correlation analysis] // World of Transport. 2009. 2 (26): 126-131. (in Russian)
13. Borovskoy A.E., Volya P.A., Novikov I.A., Shevtsova A.G. Raspredelenie sostava transportnogo potoka na primere gorodskoj aglomeracii «Belgorod» [Distribution of the composition of the traffic flow on the example of the urban agglomeration “Belgorod” // World of Transport and Technological Machines. 2015. 4 (51): 103-110. (in Russian)
14. Novikov, A., Glagolev, S., Novikov, I., Shevtsova, A. Information technologies and management of transport systems development of the approach to assessing adaptation of the intersection transport model / A. Novikov, S. Glagolev, I . Novikov, A. Shevtsova // IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering this link is disabled, 2019, 632 (1), 012052
15. Glagolev, S., Shevtsova, A., Shekhovtsova, S. Basis for application of new-generation anti-icing materials as an efficient way to reduce the accident rate on roads in winter / S. Glagolev, A. Shevtsova, S . Shekhovtsova // Trans-portation Research Procedia 2018. 36: 193-198(in Russian)
16. Dorokhin S.V., Novikov A.N., Zelikov V.A., Strukov Y.V., Novikov I.A., Shevtsova A.G., Likhachev D.V. Investiga-tion of methods for calculating duration of light signal regulation cycle / S.V. Dorokhin, A.N. Novikov, V.A. Zelikov, Y.V. Strukov, I.A. Novikov, A.G. Shevtsova, D.V. Likhachev // Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2018, 1015, 3: 032128(in Russian)
17. Novikov A., Novikov I., Shevtsova A. Modeling of traffic-light signalization depending on the quality of traffic flow in the city / A. Novikov, I. Novikov, A. Shevtsova // Journal of Applied Engineering Science. 2019. 17( 2): 175-181. (in Russian)
18. Novikov A., Shevtsova A., Vasilieva V. Development of approach to reduce number of accidents caused by drivers / A. Novikov, A. Shevtsova, V. Vasilieva // Transportation Research Procedia, 2020, 50: 491–498.
19. Evtyukov S.A., Podoprigora N.V. Sovershenstvovanie metodiki vychislenija ostanovochnogo puti [improvement of the methodology for calculating the stopping distance // Bulletin of civil engineers. 2012. 4 (33): 214-219.
20. Petrov A.I., Evtyukov S.A. Novaja antijentropijnaja koncepcija organizovannosti sistem obespechenija bezopasnosti dorozhnogo dvizhenija [New anti-entropic concept of organization of road safety systems // Bulletin of civil engineers. 2019. 1 (72): 184-193.
21. Zhankaziev S.V., Vorobiev A.I., Morozov D.Yu. Tendencii razvitija avtonomnyh intellektual’nyh transportnyh sistem v Rossii [Trends in the development of autonomous intelligent transport systems in Russia] // Transport of the Russian Federation. 2016. 5 (66): 26- 28. (in Russian)
22. Polyakov A.S., Zhankaziev S.V. Povyshenie jeffektivnosti funkcionirovanija transportnogo kompleksa goroda [Improving the efficiency of the city’s transport complex functioning ]// Science and technology in the road industry. 2016. 4 (78): 3-6. (in Russian)
23. Novikov A.N., Eremin S.V., Shevtsova A.G. Osnovnye principy rascheta programmy svetofornogo regulirovanija na osnove upravljaemyh setej i potoka nasyshhenija [Basic principles of calculating a traffic light control program based on controlled networks and saturation flow] // The Russian Automobile and Highway Industry Journal. 2019. 16. 6 (70): 680-691. (in Russian)
24. Zhigadlo A.P., Dorokhin S.V., Likhachev D.V. Novyj podhod k vvodu dopolnitel’noj levopovorotnoj sekcii svetofornogo regulirovanija [A new approach to the introduction of an additional left-turn section of traffic light regulation] // The Russian Automobile and Highway Industry Journal. 2019. 16. 4 (68): 432-445. (in Russian)
25. Kravchenko P.A., Oleshchenko E.M. Sistemnyj podhod v upravlenii bezopasnost’ju dorozhnogo dvizhenija v Rossijskoj Federacii [A systematic approach to road safety management in the Russian Federation]// Transport of the Russian Federation. 2018. 2 (75): 14-18. (in Russian)
Review
For citations:
Shevtsova A.G. Mathematical analysis of certain road safety indicators in the Russian Federation. The Russian Automobile and Highway Industry Journal. 2021;18(6):700-711. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26518/2071-7296-2021-18-6-700-711
Views:
525
Email this article 